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آینده پژوهی ایران (63652423) (1)pp. 27-56
Objective: The irreplaceable role of cities in economic, cultural and political development of countries, their challenges and problems and the difficulty of their management has resulted in an increasing significance of theories, experiences and strategies concerning city transformation. In the relevant literature, numerous concepts and approaches try to offer images of future of cities. One of these concepts is smart cities. Also, participative foresight can play a role in creating future images of cities. This study seeks to offer recommendations on how to create local and brand-new images of futures of cities in Iran and improve the quality of urban foresight practices. Method: A thick report of an event ethnography has been given from a foresight workshop conducted in Isfahan municipality about futures of Isfahan, 1420, based on observations, field notes by ethnographers and the theoretical interpretation of them. Findings: Utilization of participative deliberation and foresight techniques and event ethnography to create images of future is the innovative dimension of this paper. Conclusion: Adding materiality to future, deconstruction of technological utopianism discourse, conceptualization of foresight as a social capacity deriving from civic epistemologies and agonism, moving beyond used futures, and creation of neologisms can improve urban foresight practices.
Mohammadi M. ,
Zolfagharzadeh M.M. ,
Zakery, A. ,
Karimmian Z. International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management (14684322) (1)
This paper analyses science, technology, and innovation (STI) policy making in Iran between 1990 and 2022 using the network governance approach. Four phases of STI policy are identified: human resources and publication boom, agencification era, comprehensiveness quest, and innovation turn. The analysis shows a low degree of decentralisation, good coordination, and successful interdisciplinary collaboration. However, challenges such as the pipeline model of innovation, performance measurement politics, and controversial government and university roles hinder policy reform. To create a national innovation system, a normative turn toward a broader societal definition of innovation is recommended, and the government should shift its role to facilitator rather than interventionist. Copyright © 2025 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
Purpose: Due to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four plausible narratives of the future of Isfahan. Also, the authors described the problems of city foresight in the Global South. Design/methodology/approach: This paper chronicles the Schwartzian steps taken to build explorative scenarios of Isfahan City in Iran in 2040. After using a STEEPV (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Value) analysis, the authors prioritized the collected variables by combining influence diagrams, the iceberg metaphor and an expert-based survey. Once the key uncertainties were derived, four scenarios were developed and discussed. Findings: Through thematic analysis of the official visions of Isfahan’s future and the juxtaposition of these narratives with insight yielded in the scenario-development process, the paper concludes that the Northernness of the prevailing urban imaginaries, uncritical mimetic benchmarking, depoliticization of urban futures and the decorative reductionistic visions colonize urban futures in Isfahan/Iran. Critical/deconstructive city foresight and application of discomfort/ignorance criteria in the generation of scenarios can improve the rigor and quality of city foresight in the Global South. Originality/value: The application of city foresight in the Global South has been limited. The paper is a step toward bridging this gap and providing some recommendations on how city foresight in the Global South might differ from its counterparts in the Global North. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.
Khouzani H.R. ,
Maleki M.R. ,
Zakery, A. ,
Mazloumi E. ,
Jalilzadeh M. Heliyon (24058440) (22)
Gastric cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality among men and the second leading cause among women in Iran. Given the high incidence and mortality rates of this disease in the country, a deeper investigation into its effective causes is essential. One effective approach to uncovering the unknowns related to gastric cancer is the application of critical-deconstructive future-thinking tools, particularly Causal Layer Analysis (CLA). This qualitative study involved a review of theoretical foundations and meta-documents, along with interviews with a group of experts. By employing triangulation, the findings from the literature review were integrated with thematic analysis of the interviews through the CLA framework. At the litany layer, gastric cancer is identified as the second most prevalent and deadly cancer in Iran. The systemic layer explores the “social, technological, economic, environmental, and political” origins of gastric cancer, highlighting factors such as globalization, governance weaknesses, and cultural shifts. The third layer challenges the conceptualization of cancer as a metaphysical sin, advocating for a new narrative centered on Fundamental Prevention. Effective cancer control should focus on preventing the emergence and institutionalization of factors at the worldview and metaphorical levels that contribute to economic, political, social, and cultural attitudes, ultimately manifesting in high-risk behaviors and pathogenic processes. Designing complex social nudges is crucial for establishing this new narrative based on fundamental prevention. This study effectively combines a systematic literature review and semi-structured interviews to investigate the factors influencing gastric cancer in Iran through Causal Layer Analysis (CLA) and proposes a new layer to the conventional three-pronged prevention model called “fundamental level prevention.” The findings suggest that interventions targeting worldviews and cultural beliefs can promote behavior change and enhance health outcomes, particularly among marginalized groups. Furthermore, prioritizing fundamental changes at these layers can lead to positive reductions in disease incidence. This research holds significant implications for international audiences, highlighting the complexities of gastric cancer and the necessity for cultural interventions and global collaboration to address this pressing health issue. © 2024 The Authors
Journal of Education and Health Promotion (22779531) 12(1)pp. 149-149
BACKGROUND: Adequate health financing system should have key criteria and characteristics such as risk distribution over time, risk accumulation, sustainable resource provision, and resource allocation based on meeting essential needs. Weakness of the tariff system, lack of attention to strategic purchasing, inefficient allocation of manpower, and a weak payment system are among the problems within the Iranian financing system. Given the weaknesses of the current health financing system, it seems necessary to identify challenges and provide effective solutions to address them. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This qualitative study was conducted to explore the views of a group of 32 major policymakers and planners in the various departments and levels of the Ministry of Health, Universities of Medical Sciences, Medical System Organization, and Health Insurance Organization in Iran (n = 32), selected through purposive sampling. The data was collected through in-depth and semi-structured interviews and analyzed using Graneheim and Lundman's conventional content analysis methods. The trial version of MAXQDA 16 software was used to manage the coding process. RESULTS: Based on the results of data analysis, a total of 5 categories and 28 subcategories were obtained. In this study, five main categories were obtained through the content analysis method, including (1) stewardship; (2) providing services; (3) production of resources; (4) collecting resources; and (5) purchasing and allocation of resources. CONCLUSION: It is suggested that those in charge of the health system, following the reform of the organization of the health system, move toward the improvement and widespread implementation of the referral system and that clinical guidelines be carefully compiled. Also, appropriate motivational and legal tools should be used to implement them. However, insurance companies need to make cost, population, and service coverage more effective.
Jelodar, Zahra ,
Saghafi, F. ,
Zakery, A. ,
Jabbari, A. Journal of Education and Health Promotion (22779531) (1)
Nurses play a vital role in the delivery, quality improvement of healthcare services, and promoting patient health. Therefore, methods of providing nurses are an important issue. This study was conducted to collect evidence on the methods of providing nurses and their advantages and disadvantages by a scoping review method. The Arksey and O'Malley Framework and PRISMA were used in directing the present scoping review. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were used to conduct the review and report on results. The ISI Web of science, PubMed, Scopus, and ProQuest electronic databases were searched for relevant articles published between January 2010 and December 2020 using the keywords and their synonyms. Finally, 19 articles out of 1813 ones to answer the research questions were selected. The results showed that although two general methods are for the employment status of nurses (full-Time and part-Time nurses), different classification countries are dissimilar from each other. A total of 13 advantages and 20 disadvantages of the part-Time pattern and 6 advantages and 4 disadvantages were extracted from the full-Time pattern of studies. None of the patterns has precedence over the other. Despite the strengths and weaknesses, each of the full-Time or part-Time patterns in its position is beneficial. With proper management and planning, it is possible to minimize their weaknesses and benefited from their advantages. Training part-Time nurses to maintain and improve their level is a key point in reducing the disadvantages of this pattern. © 2023 Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications. All rights reserved.
Journal of Health Management (09720634) (2)
The concept of technological catch-up can be used as a theoretical platform to design policies for the management of the healthcare sector in developing countries. In this article, initially, the factors affecting a technological catch-up process were collected through a conceptual literature review and prioritised using a fuzzy Delphi survey. The interdependences among important contributory factors were investigated as well. They were then used to create some policy recommendations for the management of the healthcare sector in developing countries through an interdisciplinary integration of the literature of technological catch-up and healthcare. Some exemplary projects/initiatives using these policies were collected too. The quality of human resources, a comprehensive knowledge management system, interactive learning and innovation-encouraging culture were rated as the most important contributing factors to an effectual technological catch-up in the healthcare sector in developing countries. Also, the creation of distributed health social networks, development of systematic knowledge management systems, forming strategic partnerships and designing path-creating technological catch-up processes by focusing on indigenous innovation were the final policy recommendations. All in all, the healthcare sector in developing countries should stop chasing frontiers, should try taking detours and flying a balloon by adopting a strategy of differentiation. © 2023 SAGE Publications.
European Journal of Futures Research (21954194) (1)
The ever-increasing environmental complexity makes strategizing a difficult multidimensional task. In this paper, we conducted a corporate foresight case study in an SME in packaging industry in Iran. The case study offers a detailed procedure of implementing corporate foresight (CF) and how it can reshape traditional strategic planning. A multimethodological approach was taken in this case study. Once an intraorganizational team in studied company was formed, archival document analysis, PESTEL and weak signal analysis, importance/uncertainty matrix, cross-impact balanced (CIB) analysis, scenario construction, wind tunneling, robust decision-making, and premortem session were used to create foresight intelligence. This paper presents a detailed description of how CF can be linked to conventional strategizing and reshape it. Key variables, driving forces, critical uncertainties, and 4 plausible scenarios are presented. The case study illustrates that as alternative realities challenged the foresight teams ingrained presuppositions, they found the dialectic between “weight of history” and “pull of future” both revelatory and indigestible. The CF intervention illuminated the fragility of preexisting strategic objectives, the implicit optimism bias underlying them, and an overflowing-plate syndrome of formulating too many strategic objectives. Consequently, studied company decided to revisit their strategic objectives, prepare a contingency plan for worst-case scenarios, and begin developing a crisis-ready culture. The comprehensive case study demonstrates how CF can enhance and contradict traditional strategizing, presents a rich know-how of added value of scenarios, and provides some subtleties and complexities of CF interventions. © 2023, The Author(s).
There is a pragmatic and moral imperative to empower younger generations to tackle environmental degradation., In Iran and drought-stricken Isfahan with a dying river, children and the youth can play a major role in saving this historically significant city. This paper presents the results of a future-oriented drama-based participatory event in a high school in Isfahan. During a 6-day event, firstly, 25 female participants were interviewed about environmental hazards and their sense of agency toward the future. Subsequently, a council-of-all-being-inspired drama was staged during which the participants played local environment-related characters from Isfahan. Finally, on the fourth day, in a focus group, we discussed the reflections of students on this intervention. Paralyzing fear and despair, patriarchal social structure, consumerism, and deep-seated habits were regarded as the main barriers to pro-environmental behavior. Participants felt that they cannot overcome the weight of history to shape their desirable futures. Drama unveiled the participants consume-preserve dilemma, helped them empathize with nature, develop a sense of hope, decipher the importance of individual micro-steps, and even start an inter-generational dialogue. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd
Zakery, A. ,
Amankwah-Amoah J. ,
Heidari Darani Z. ,
Ghasemi S. Sustainability (Switzerland) (20711050) (16)
Although the COVID-19 pandemic has generated voluminous research in mainstream business and management, there remains a need for a robust state-of-the-art review of the current diverse streams of research that have scattered across different fields. To address this lacuna in the current growing body of research, we conducted a systematic review of 152 COVID-related papers in the field of business and management published in top-tier journals to identify the impact of the pandemic on business activities. Based on the review, we classified the topical foci of the selected studies under three broad categories (i.e., corporate strategy, corporate design and culture, and contextual environment) and 13 sub-categories (e.g., CoVsumption, uncertainty asphyxiation, and normalization of meta-firms), which are the recurring themes in the papers. We correspondingly outline new avenues for future research and the theoretical and practical implications of this study. The findings revealed that, during the pandemic, adaptive strategies to survive the pandemic took precedence over shaping strategies to build post-COVID realities. © 2022 by the authors.
Zakery, A. ,
Shariatpanahi, Peyman ,
Zolfagharzadeh M.M. ,
Pourezzat, Ali Asghar Futures (00163287)
Simulation is likely to become a prominent method of theory development. Futures studies have used simulation in different ways such as evaluating scenarios. Nonetheless, the central attributes of computer simulation such as reductionism-based abstraction, determinism and elimination of stakeholders are the main barriers of successful implementation of simulation in FS. In this paper, we would paint the plausible evolutionary panorama of futures of simulation in futures studies after looking at the role of simulation in FS so far. The possible mechanisms and partnerships required to be applied to grapple the above-mentioned difficulties will be enumerated and investigated. These, in three categories, comprise firstly, human-machine interactions such as quasi-game simulations, and scenario visualization, secondly, large-network simulations including crowd sourcing, and thirdly, simulation platforms for replication of emergence. Ergo, crafting a classification of simulation in futures studies and the possible developments will be the main contribution of this paper. A novel double diamond classification will be presented as well which reflects the past and plausible futures of simulation in futures studies. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd
