Assessing the resilience of informal urban settlements against earthquakes: a case study of Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

The expansion of urban areas and increasing marginalization has resulted in the proliferation of inappropriate settlements susceptible to significant hazards like earthquakes. Unsuitable land use, inadequate building construction and design, and deficient urban infrastructure contribute to the vulnerability of human settlements. This study aims to evaluate the resilience of Koi Nah Dareh, a neighborhood situated on the outskirts of Mashhad, and identify the factors rendering it vulnerable to earthquakes using exploratory factor analysis. The study focused on disadvantaged areas with poor physical conditions and numerous inefficiencies, including aging residential units and areas with unfavorable natural conditions for construction. The present study adopted the Analytic Hierarchy Process to assess the relative importance of vulnerability factors and indicators and identify the vulnerability zone. The findings revealed five key factors: convenient access to services, physical retrofitting, environmental adaptation, improvement of the road network, and enhancement of public transportation. Convenient access to services held the highest importance coefficient (0.315) as the top priority followed by physical retrofitting with an importance coefficient of 0.184, signifying its significant impact on earthquake vulnerability. The assessment demonstrated that all habitable areas of the neighborhood exhibited high vulnerability indicators, indicating a low level of resilience to earthquakes. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2024.