Assessment of regional official development programs on solid waste management via system dynamics approach considering their GHGs emissions

Abstract

Iran, as a developing country, recently regards the reduction of GHGs emissions from waste sector as one of the important strategies in national sustainable development planning. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the effects of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management on GHGs mitigation potential. For this purpose, an integrated system dynamic model was developed to evaluate the environmental impacts of Official Development Plans (ODPs) regarding MSW. To demonstrate its applicability, Isfahan province in Iran is selected as a case study. The results show that ODPs on waste sector have adverse effect on GHGs mitigation. Which means that short, mid and long-term ODPs will increase GHGs emissions by about 71%, 80% and 152%, respectively. In all ODPs scenarios, aerobic fermentation (AF) method accounted for nearly most of GHGs emissions, at 95%, 78% and 34% in short, mid and long-term ODPs, respectively. Other treatment methods such as landfilling, anaerobic digester (AD), and incineration are very small sources of GHGs emissions, accounting for only less than 10% combined. Scenario analysis further indicates that Waste to Energy (WTE) method of compost gas utilization in AF is the most effective and adoptive measure in reducing GHGs emissions from MSW treatment, leading to about 34% and 22% of reduction compared with mid and long-term development scenarios, respectively. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2024.