Lifetime estimation of heat pipes in space applications using particle filtering, Arrhenius and FIDES methods

Abstract

As one of the thermal management elements, heat pipes are frequently used in cooling or heat recovery systems. They are devices that can quickly transfer large amounts of heat with a slight temperature difference between hot and cold sources. The present study aims to evaluate and measure the lifetime of heat pipes in space applications such as spacecraft and satellites. In order to investigate the lifetime of heat pipes in different operating temperatures, three prediction methods of particle filtering, Arrhenius, and FIDES are applied. Innovative approaches are adopted to combine the Arrhenius and FIDES methods besides adjusting the FIDES method for mechanical devices. The failure times at the accelerated temperatures are estimated through the particle filtering method as well as linear and exponential regressions, and failure times at the operating temperatures are estimated by the Arrhenius model. The FIDES method adds more aspects of reliability to the prediction procedure, such as the quality of the used materials, technical conditions of the manufacturing process and the stress cycles applied to the heat pipes. A sensitivity analysis is also performed on the failure criteria. The results show that the failure time for the heat pipes is between 12 and 60 years, which entirely fits the related standards. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd