Scenario planning in the direction domain of EFQM: an integration of fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM), fuzzy linguistic MICMAC (FLMICMAC) and cross-impact balance (CIB)

Abstract

Purpose – This study aims to conduct scenario planning for the direction domain of the European Foundation for Quality Management (EFQM) Excellence Model 2025. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, the initial strategic key factors in the Direction domain of the EFQM Model 2025 were first identified using fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) and fuzzy linguistic MICMAC (FLMICMAC). These factors were then refined and ranked through paired comparison questionnaires and the Pareto principle. Based on these finalized factors, plausible future states were defined and scenario planning and validation were conducted using the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. The research was carried out within a holding company, involving a statistical population of 18 senior managers and experts. Findings – The findings of this study indicate that the factors “Enable Creativity and Innovation”, “Create the Conditions for Realising Change” and “Steer the Organisation's Culture and Nurture Values” play a crucial role in achieving organisational success and performance improvement. These factors significantly contribute to strategic goal attainment and facilitate organisational transformation. Furthermore, three robust and internally consistent scenarios were identified: “Innovative Transformation”, “Organisational Stagnation” and “Gradual Transformation”. Among these, “Innovative Transformation” and “Gradual Transformation” were classified as desirable scenarios, while “Organisational Stagnation” was deemed undesirable. Practical implications – The proposed method enables managers to formulate strategies based on scenarios for the Direction domain of the EFQM Model 2025 and to prioritise investments and reduce change costs using EFQM-aligned key performance indicators by establishing a change management office, participatory policies, a foresight unit and structural enablers. Originality/value – This study presents an innovative approach to analysing the strategic Direction domain within the EFQM Model 2025 by integrating three analytical methods: FCM, FLMICMAC and CIB. Unlike previous studies that typically applied analytical techniques in isolation, this research improves the accuracy of forecasting and decision-making by combining fuzzy analytical methods with scenario-based analysis. Furthermore, rather than concentrating solely on implementation across all domains of the EFQM Model 2025, the study highlights the “Direction” domain as the core of strategic management and simulates potential organisational futures accordingly. © 2025 Emerald Publishing Limited