Spatiotemporal drought propagation over the Eastern Middle East using the complex network

Abstract

Drought disasters can affect socio-economic systems and ecosystems. Furthermore, based on the observations, the Eastern Middle East (EME) region has experienced significantly faster warming compared to other populated areas. Wherein, Iran has also suffered from several long droughts. Predictions regarding the spatial and temporal distribution of drought events over Iran and its neighboring countries improve our understanding of this process and help reduce exposure to water scarcity and its destructive effects by preparing timely measures. In this study, complex networks are applied to analyze the paths and propagation distances of droughts, identifying the sources and vulnerable regions in EME. Additionally, event synchronization techniques to detect drought events that simultaneously impact multiple regions are utilized. For this purpose, important events are determined according to the SPEI index during 1970–2020. Based on the developed network over the country, the inward and outward strength criteria of drought events across different time scales and eight geographical directions are calculated. The findings reveal a significant vulnerability in the western and northwestern regions of Iran, highlighting their susceptibility to drought events originating in its southwestern and northwestern neighboring countries. This pattern suggests a strong influence of regional meteorological conditions and hydrologic al connectivity on drought propagation within these regions. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2025.