Modelling the impact of natural destructive factors over the spatial distribution of cultural heritage sites in Qom, Iran

Abstract

In this study, a method has been defined for modelling the risk of natural factors that can impact cultural heritage sites and monuments in the city of Qom, located in the central plateau region of Iran. Modelling focussed on several potentially destructive environmental factors, including floods (by mapping rivers and waterway networks using hydrological analysis), earthquakes (by using existing fault maps), humidity (evaluated using tasseled cap wetness data) and urban heat island effects (by using urban thermal field variance indices). These indicators were weighted using Buckley's Fuzzy Analysis Hierarchy Process (BFAHP). Finally, the parameters are combined with a gamma coefficient of 0.95. The results showed that 60% of the city's museums and 46.77% of the city's historical places are vulnerable to impact. This article details the methodology and methods used to rank the city's zones regarding the risk to its cultural heritage and for the planning of new buildings, including museums.