Articles
Natural Hazards (0921030X)121(2)pp. 1353-1373
The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases(CO2) emission in the atmosphere, and natural climate change phenomena has caused unprecedented changes in global climate behavior. The sharp increase in temperature and extreme weather events like drought in arid and semi-arid countries like Iran have reduced the resilience of ecosystems, thus, environmental stability. The objective here is to analyze the causality of air temperature rise trend and drought, by assessing their consequences on water tension and internal migration, next to providing appropriate solutions in reducing environmental vulnerability in Iran through the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model. It is revealed that the air temperature in Iran is increasing at a rate faster than the global average. The simultaneous rise in temperature, the decrease in precipitation, and the occurrence of long-term droughts have increased water tension and reduced the stability of settlements. Reduced water resources have increased poverty and internal migration in Iran. Reducing the intensity of fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emission, through adaptation methods and improving the spatial distribution of the population are among the proposed responses for adjusting the water tension effects and reducing vulnerability. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2024.
Land Use Policy (02648377)148
Land use change is an effective factor in climate change and global warming, which contributes to the carbon cycle, radiant energy balance, and dust production. Urmia Lake basin water balance in the Northwestern part of Iran is in a critical condition due to land use change, drought, and climate change. This process has led to the lake water area reduction and pronounced dust production. The satellite images indicate that from 1984 to 2017, 1433 Km2 rangelands and water area of the Urmia Lake basin decreased by more than 2906 Km2. The area of human settlement increased by 550 Km2, irrigated farmland and orchards, 804 Km2, and salty marsh, 3428 Km2. The outputs of the WetSpass hydrological model reveal the highest coefficient of evapotranspiration and interception variation in the East of Urmia Lake basin. The effects of these changes are observed in reduced soil moisture, increased salty marsh, and soft sediments as potential dust resources. During the study period, the frequency of dust days in the North and East of the lake increased 2.5-fold, while in the Southern and Western parts increased 6-fold. The results of the Pettitt Test indicate that these changes began to appear in 2007. The regression and correlation test confirm that salt marshes and soft sediments account for up to 75 %, and the decrease in the area of Urmia Lake for more than 64 % of the dust changes. The results of the assessments indicate the contribution of footprint in the destruction of the natural environment and the water balance of the lake basin. Revision of water resources management and environmental water rights of the lake, changes in the development strategy from agriculture to non-agriculture development based on lower water demand, and reduction of storage dams are among the recommended strategies to address this problem. © 2024 Elsevier Ltd
Journal of Mountain Science (16726316)22(7)pp. 2527-2540
Long-term droughts, temperature rise, and extreme weather events cause changes in runoff, evaporation, and transpiration in basins. These changes are more severe in arid and semi-arid regions. Since 2007, the discharge of baseflow of the Zagros Mountain has decreased and made the supply of agricultural, industrial, and drinking water a big challenge. In this investigation, utilizing data from weather stations, the output of CORDEX, and the WetSpass model, the impact of climate change on river discharge in the Great Karun Basin (GKB) was examined. The temperature and precipitation projections for the period 2019–2040 were analyzed using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) under scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The findings reveal that the minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to increase by 0.2°C to 5.1°C and 0.1°C to 3.6°C, respectively. Annual precipitation will decrease between 1.3% and 16.7% in scenario SSP2-4.5 and 23.4% in scenario SSP5-8.5. The results of the WetSpass Model for predicting future scenarios indicate a decrease in direct flow (5%), total discharge (27%), and interception (15%). As evapotranspiration will increase by 15% due to climate change, it will be more difficult to predict the water resources’ volume of the Karoun Basin for the next decades. Adapting to climate change is the appropriate solution to solve this problem. Changes in temperature and precipitation in these areas pose major challenges to water resources. © Science Press, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025.
Natural Hazards (15730840)120(5)pp. 4329-4348
Human activities and climate change have resulted in environmental degradation and increased environmental hazards globally. In Khuzestan province, such hazards have included droughts, heat waves, and dust storms occurring more frequently. To understand the factors contributing to the dust storms, this study evaluated changes in rainfall, air temperature maximum and minimum, and soil temperature (1985–2019), as well as land cover, land surface temperature, and water bodies in 2017 (drought) and 2019 (wet year). The findings of the principal component analysis indicate a reduction in annual water bodies, spring vegetation, and water bodies in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. The increase in air and land surface temperature accounts for 95% of the variance in dust in the Khuzestan province. Field surveys suggest that various human activities such as hydro dam building, crude oil drilling, extracting crude oil wells in lagoons, changes in farmland use, and water transfer among water basins have intensified the phenomena in the region under study. To manage this critical issue more effectively, it is recommended to review and assess local policies regarding regional ecology and establish cooperative agreements with regional countries such as Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia which all experience similar natural disasters. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2024.
