Articles
Case Studies on Transport Policy (22136258)20
In Australia, road crash injuries continue to be a serious public health issue. Machine learning is used in this study to analyse injury data from road crashes between 2011 and 2021 that was taken from the national hospitalized injury database. We investigate how the number of injuries and duration of stay for road users are affected by variables such as gender, age, seasonal variation, collision type, and location (urban vs. regional). Road safety measures are informed by patterns and relationships found in the data by machine learning models. Hospitalizations have been trending upward between 2011 and 2019, with a pause in 2020 due to COVID-19 lockdowns. In all categories, men sustain more injuries than women, though the number varies according to age and geography. The type of road user also affects collision patterns. The time-series projections demonstrate that the goal of zero fatalities in 2050 will not be achieved under the business-as-usual scenario. The findings highlight the necessity of focused interventions predicated on collision trends and demographics. This includes better infrastructure design, increased surveillance, and customized safety measures. © 2025 The Author(s)
Despite substantial progress in road safety, road traffic fatalities (RTFs) continue to be a persistent issue in Australia. This study aims to forecast RTFs trends up to 2050 by analyzing factors such as geographic location, age, gender, speed limits, and time of occurrence. Utilizing historical data from 1989 to 2024, fatalities were categorized by road user type, demographics, and day of the week. The Facebook Prophet time series model, incorporating categorical variables like region, age, and speed limits, was employed to predict future trends. The analysis reveals significant regional disparities in fatality reduction rates, with some areas lagging others. Gender-specific forecasts indicate a sharper decline in male fatalities compared to females, while projections highlight persistent risks for older drivers. Additionally, highways with higher speed limits are expected to see a substantial decrease in fatalities. These insights emphasize the need for targeted interventions in areas with slower reductions and high-risk demographic groups, aiding policymakers in refining safety measures, enforcing speed limits, and enhancing public awareness campaigns. © 2025 The Author(s)