Research Output
Articles
Publication Date: 2023
Ricerche di Matematica (18273491)72(2)pp. 1-36
In this paper, we propose a flexible growth model that constitutes a suitable generalization of the well-known Gompertz model. We perform an analysis of various features of interest, including a sensitivity analysis of the initial value and the three parameters of the model. We show that the considered model provides a good fit to some real datasets concerning the growth of the number of individuals infected during the COVID-19 outbreak, and software failure data. The goodness of fit is established on the ground of the ISRP metric and the d2 -distance. We also analyze two time-inhomogeneous stochastic processes, namely a birth-death process and a birth process, whose means are equal to the proposed growth curve. In the first case we obtain the probability of ultimate extinction, being 0 an absorbing endpoint. We also deal with a threshold crossing problem both for the proposed growth curve and the corresponding birth process. A simulation procedure for the latter process is also exploited. © 2020, The Author(s).
Publication Date: 2023
Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability (13875841)25(3)
Several extensions of the familiar Dirichlet process have been widely investigated to nonparametric Bayesian model fittings parallel with appealing subsequent studies on their particular properties. This paper presents an explicit form for the joint distribution of drawn samples from the beta two-parameter process using an extension of stick-breaking construction. In particular, we evaluate the joint distribution of a random sequence for a specific process case and compare it with the Blackwell-MacQueen process. We obtain moments of the beta two-parameter process and present a formula for the number of distinct values in the sample. We establish the precision ratio and explore its effect on this number. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.
Publication Date: 2022
Medical Journal Of The Islamic Republic Of Iran (10161430)36(1)
Background: Reliance heavily on out-of-pocket (OOP) payments, including informal payments (IPs), has undesired effects on financial risk protection and access to care. While a significant share of total health expenditure is spent on outpatient services, there is scant evidence of the patient's amount paid informally in outpatient services. Such evidence is available for inpatient services, showing the high prevalence of informal payments, ranging from 14 to 48% in the whole hospital. This study aimed to investigate the extent of OOP and IPs for outpatient services in Iran. Methods: A secondary data analysis of the 2015 IR Iran's Utilization of Healthcare Services (IrUHS) survey was conducted. A sample of 11,782 individuals with basic health insurance who were visited at least once by a physician in two private and public health care centers was included in this analysis. The percentage of OOP was determined and compared with the defined copayment (30%). The frequency of IPs was determined regarding the number of individuals who paid more than the defined copayments. The Mann-Whitney test also investigated the relationships between OOP percentage and IPs frequency with demographic variables. Results: The share that insured patients in Iran pay for a general practitioner (GP) visit was 38% in public versus 61% in the private sector, while for a specialist practitioner visit, the figures were 80% and 96%, respectively, which is higher than defined copayment (30%). This share was significantly higher in females, urban areas, highly educated people, private service providers, and specialist visits. The frequency of IPs, who paid more than the defined copayments, was 73% for a GP in public versus 86% in the private sector, while for a specialist practitioner visit, these were 90% and 93%, respectively. Conclusion: Informal patient payments for outpatient services are prevalent in Iran. Hence, more interventions are required to eliminate or control the IPs in outpatient services, particularly in the private sector. In this regard, making a well-regulated market, reinforcing the referral system, and developing an equity-oriented essential health services package would be fundamental © Iran University of Medical Sciences
