Publication Date: 2025
Cogent Economics and Finance (23322039)13(1)
This study aims to evaluate the ambiguities inherent in establishing the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) and their effect on the expected rate of return for member countries. We focus on six countries along the proposed maritime route—France, India, Italy, Greece, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates. Our empirical methodology integrates a dynamic programming monetary model that incorporates shopping time with uncertainty, while the aggregated data on strategic indicators—namely, the Global Food Security Index, Resilience Index, and Service Area Index—is normalized and evaluated using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The results indicate that increased ambiguity leads to a reduction in the expected rate of return, with estimated declines of 12% for France, 15% for India, 19% for Italy, 21% for Greece, 30% for Israel, and 86% for the United Arab Emirates. These findings underscore the critical role of strategic information in mitigating uncertainty and highlight that policy measures, particularly those aimed at enhancing the service area infrastructure in the UAE, can significantly improve investment outcomes in the IMEEC. © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
Publication Date: 2025
Maritime Economics and Logistics (14792931)27(1)pp. 147-182
The India Middle-East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was introduced by US President Joe Biden in September 2023 in India, during the G-20 meeting. By creating commercial connections along the southern border of Eurasia, an expanding, multi-faceted IMEC trade corridor has the potential to alter trade patterns between the Middle East, Europe, and the Indian Ocean region. The project’s goal is to build a railway network that would travel via Saudi Arabia and Jordan to connect the United Arab Emirates with Israel and, from there, through a final sea-leg towards the Mediterranean EU ports, notably Piraeus, with continental Europe. Therefore, it is critical to assess trade potential among IMEC countries while paying attention to this corridor's function. Examining IMEC’s function in promoting international trade among initiative stakeholders while taking the geographic context into account, is the objective of this study. The analysis of IMEC members’ historical trends has been attempted as well. To calculate trade potential, a sophisticated gravity model is developed. Since this shows port connections to the hinterland, the integration of GIS-based network analysis; service area modelling; and road density modelling are also undertaken, in our objective to estimate trade potential. By integrating the gravity model (GM) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), it becomes feasible to create visual depictions of the trade potential of IMEC to interested parties. We employ metrics like population, GDP, trade volume, road density per square kilometer, and service coverage as inputs to the GM, spanning from 2000 to 2021. Based on the panel data of a gravity model among IMEC members between 2000 to 2021, and using ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM) modelling, our findings indicate that economic improvements in these countries, as well as efforts to decrease distances and improve connectivity among ports, will enhance interaction, as well as the processes of economic, social and political integration amongst them. The corridor also decreases (economic) distances and improves connectivity among ports, enhancing the overall globalization index of a country. Interestingly, we also find that having more than eight official languages has a negative effect on a country’s globalization index. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2024.
Publication Date: 2025
Global Change, Peace and Security (14781158)
This study examines the macroeconomic consequences of speculative currency attacks on BRICS economies–Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa–against the backdrop of their strategic shift toward de-dollarization. Speculative attacks typically involve sudden and massive sell-offs of domestic currencies in favour of foreign currencies, most often the US dollar. These episodes are frequently triggered by external shocks such as international sanctions, trade disputes, or political instability, posing significant risks to monetary stability in emerging markets. To assess these dynamics, the study employs a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, supported by autoregressive (AR) estimations using the Box–Jenkins methodology. The model incorporates key macroeconomic variables such as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, investment, and exchange rates, and is calibrated using panel data from 2014 to 2023. The findings indicate that speculative attacks have asymmetric effects: they consistently reduce real economic variables–including output, capital, and consumption–while simultaneously elevating domestic price levels and causing temporary exchange rate appreciation. These disturbances erode monetary sovereignty and hinder BRICS countries’ collective efforts to reduce dependence on the US dollar. The study highlights importance of adopting managed floating exchange rate regimes and building resilient regional monetary frameworks to absorb external shocks and ensure macroeconomic stability amid global uncertainties. © 2025 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
Publication Date: 2025
Social Sciences and Humanities Open (25902911)11
Globalization events have significantly shaped how major economies like India approach global challenges, especially in the energy sector. As the most populous country in 2024, India plays a crucial role in advancing renewable energy, aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goal 7 for 2030. In 1990, India had a higher percentage of renewable energy consumption compared to 2020, even as the country saw improvements in its Globalization Index during this period. This raises the question: does increasing renewable energy consumption in India lead to a decline in globalization? To address this, we applied Least Squares estimation (Gauss-Newton/Marquardt steps) and GMM methods using EViews software to analyze the relationship between renewable energy consumption and the Globalization Index from 1990 to 2020. The results reveal an inverse U- shaped effect, where globalization increases when renewable energy consumption is below 34% but declines when it exceeds this threshold. Key global events, such as China's Yuan inclusion in the SDR basket in 2016 and Iran's energy policies, had minimal impact on India's energy or globalization trends. However, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), revitalized after sanctions on Iran were lifted in 2015–2016, positively affected India's global integration, making 2016 a pivotal year. Looking ahead to 2030, simulations suggest that strategic trade with INSTC members will boost India's renewable energy use and Globalization Index, aligning with its commitment to cleaner energy and UN goals. India's involvement in the Yuan internationalization, INSTC, and trade with Iran places it in a key position to contribute to the UN's 2030 sustainability agenda. © 2025 The Authors
Publication Date: 2025
Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity (21998531)11(1)
This paper investigates a key objective of BRICS: the establishment of an alternative international currency as part of a broader de-dollarization strategy. This effort has gained urgency, primarily due to Russia's need to bypass Western sanctions and China's advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). By applying the Morris Method, the study introduces the BRICSIZATION index—a quantitative panel index measuring the level of independence from the dollar among BRICS members from 2003 to 2022. In the analysis, inflation rates and the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) of BRICS founding members are used as independent variables within a Panel Random Effect OLS and GLS model. The findings reveal that the average BRICSIZATION index is over 72 % out of 100 %, indicating a significant degree of progress toward de-dollarization. Within the BRICS framework, the currencies of Brazil, China, and South Africa are strong candidates for a new currency basket, achieving an average index of 93 %. Meanwhile, the currencies of India and Russia, with an average index of 37 %, are identified as weaker contributors to the basket. The study also highlights that economic instability—whether from inflation or heightened geopolitical tensions (as indicated by a rising GPR)—tends to reduce the BRICSIZATION index. This suggests that macroeconomic policies like inflation targeting, along with strengthened international relations among countries aiming for reduced dollar dependence, are essential to achieving de-dollarization. This analysis underscores the potential and challenges of creating a new currency bloc independent of the dollar, reflecting both the strategic interests and vulnerabilities within BRICS. © 2024 The Authors
Publication Date: 2024
Globalization and Health (17448603)20(1)
Background: This study aims to expand on the concept of peace and health by drawing from Keynes' theory of the economic consequences of peace, in light of the global pandemic experienced in 2020 due to COVID_19. Methods: In this paper, I will elaborate on the concept of ‘security’, as an indicator of peace in the time of biological shocks, in order to expand the definition of Keynesian precautionary motivation. This puts forth a new monetary policy model developed to make contributions to achieving global peace. In so doing, I will calculate the optimal growth rate of discount rate through utilizing the Global Peace Index (GPI), adjusted by the Case Fatality Risk (CFR) of COVID-19 in a dynamic shopping time monetary model. This analysis is comprised of the top 15 GDP countries as well as the 10 most and least peaceful countries in 2020. Results: The results indicate that households in more peaceful and healthy countries tend to hold less money compared to those in less peaceful and healthy countries. Besides, the discount rate needs to be reduced due to the outbreak of COVID-19 and the decrease in the level of peace in the economy. Conclusion: Insofar as the imposition of fines through international legal circles on countries with an insignificant health and peace policy will increase the cost of liquidity, other alternative methods of financing will be affor dable for the countries. © The Author(s) 2024.
Publication Date: 2024
Cogent Economics and Finance (23322039)12(1)
The expansion of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the introduction of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) are of great significance in terms of both politics and trade. This article aims to analyze the methodological shortcomings of traditional models and suggests a new model to evaluate the potential trade benefits of these corridors. The study discusses the reasoning for combining recursive analysis with GIS-network analysis in the logistical planning of international corridors. The authors have used a shopping time model that integrates distance and political risk index (PRI). They have then employed dynamic programming to assess and compare the changing opportunity cost (OPC) of retaining money. The findings suggest that the development of these corridors would provide differing degrees of benefits to different nations, with India being the country that would earn the greatest advantage by joining the IMEEC. Nevertheless, Iran enjoys the most significant benefits in comparison to other members of the INSTC. India stands to benefit somewhat more from its participation in the INSTC compared to the IMEEC. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
Publication Date: 2024
Journal of Economic Asymmetries (17034949)30
We introduce a new concept of distance, and the way this could affect gravity-based trade modeling. Our motivation is twofold: a) global uncertainty in trade relations allows us to treat distance as an asymmetric shock in economic modeling; b) economies of scale in seaborne trade make geographical distance less relevant in trade models, substituted by economic distance, as this can be proxied by ocean freight rates. This, for instance, allows China to import iron ore from Brazil, at three times the distance compared to Australia. We enhance the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) by incorporating a distance shock parameter into the transaction costs function. We test this on Iran's participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as well as in the International North-South Transport Corridor. We conclude that longer physical distances do not necessarily have a negative impact on trade. © 2024 The Authors
Publication Date: 2024
Asian Economic and Financial Review (23052147)14(12)pp. 932-946
This study evaluates India's trade potential and financial efficiency within two key corridors: the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This study concentrates on maximizing transaction time savings through the holding of additional real money balances, taking into account the influence of distance. An adjusted shopping time model, incorporating distances and service areas, is used. Dynamic programming calculates optimal transaction times for India's trade with members of both IMEEC and INSTC. The opportunity costs of holding money (OC) are introduced as a welfare criterion to compare the trade benefits. The study finds that distance significantly influences the optimal quantity of money for trade. India benefits more from trade with IMEEC members like the UAE, Italy, and France, and INSTC members such as Russia and Kazakhstan. IMEEC offers greater trade payoffs for India compared to INSTC, making it a more strategic option for enhancing India's global trade position. The research provides valuable insights for policymakers in optimizing trade routes and financial strategies, leveraging India’s involvement in both IMEEC and INSTC for economic gain. © 2024 AESS Publications. All Rights Reserved.
Publication Date: 2024
Contemporary Chinese Political Economy and Strategic Relations (24109681)10(1)pp. 26-56
This study explores the feasibility of forging trade partnerships between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, emphasizing the crucial role of economic stability in determining trade effectiveness considering the significance of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region. Using the Morris technique, for measuring economic stability index, the research examines key variables such as inflation rates, unemployment rates, private debt metrics, loans and debt securities relative to gross domestic product (GDP), and government gross debt as a percentage of GDP. Granger Causality analysis has been applied for understanding the relationship between trade partnerships and economic stability index. Spanning from 2000 to 2021, this comprehensive analysis offers valuable insights into economic trends in both nations. The findings reveal similar levels of economic stability on average, with Tajikistan showing slightly higher stability since 2013 due to demographic factors and shifts in trade ratios to GDP. Kyrgyzstan averages a stability score of 63 percent, marginally lower than Tajikistan’s 65 percent. The trade partnerships enhance the economic stability of Kyrgyzstan, while there is no significant relationship for the economy of Tajikistan. Therefore, Kyrgyzstan should be keen on following BRI projects for its economic stability. © 2024 Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies - National Sun Yat-sen University. All rights reserved.
