دکتر سعید وثوقی
دانشیار
گروه علوم سیاسیدانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد
پست الکترونیکی
s.vosoughi@ase.ui.ac.irآدرس
دانشگاه اصفهان
میدان آزادی
اصفهان، ایران
کد پستی : 8174673441
2009
2025
بروندادهای پژوهشی
مقالات لاتین
2024
Central Eurasia Studies (20080867)17(2)pp. 463-490
Introduction: Researchers have divided the cause of the 2014 and 2022 Crises in Ukraine into three categories. Some have attributed the 2014 and 2022 crises in Ukraine to Russia's efforts to prevent the expansion of the European Union and NATO and the bordering of these institutions with this country and another group links the cause of these crises to Russia's desire to gain power and return to the greatness of Soviet era, as well as Ukraine's western policies. But from the authors' perspective, the cause of these crises should also be examined from another perspective, which is the role of the West in the emergence of these crises and their prolongation. Accordingly, this article attempts to analyze the West’s role in the occurrence of the 2014 and 2022 crises in Ukraine and their prolongation, using the propositions of the theory of offensive realism. Research question: What role did the West play in the outbreak and prolongation of the 2014 and 2022 crises in Ukraine? Research hypothesis: The research hypothesis is because the West, through three strategies of baiting, balancing, interventon, prepared the ground for the 2014 and 2022 crises in Ukraine and their prolongation in order to prevent Russia from gaining power. Methodology and theoretical framework: A qualitative multiple case study method was used to answer the research question and test the hypothesis. The data was collected using a library resource and analyzed using a descriptive-analytical approach within the framework of the theory of offensive realism. Results and discussion: The results indicated that the diferent strategies have been used by west to prevent Russian from prolonging presence of Russia on Ukrain territory and impact the sitiation. However, sofar results are not in faveore west and Russia has upper hand in Ukrain. Of course, the futre of Ukrain crisis is not so clear and has comelications for both sides. In fact, Ukraine has effectively played the role of two poles of power, a victim of the competition between Russia and the West and a prey and tool for the West's goals against Russia. Conclusion: According to the propositions of offensive realism, achieving a position of hegemony is the goal of great powers. Great powers always try to become hegemon by increasing their power and when they become hegemons, they use various strategies to increase their power and manage and control their rivals to prevent the hegemony of other powers. In fact, the West has always tried to take full advantage of the country's desire to get closer to the West by inciting and encouraging Ukrainian officials to join Western institutions in line with its strategic goal of expanding its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, and geopolitically encircling Russia, in this regard Ukraine has been a tool in the hands of the West to use this country's card to counter its traditional threat. Therefore, after independence, this country has always been the scene of competition between the West and Russia and has witnessed serious conflicts and various political-security crises. © (2024), (University of Tehran). All Rights Reserved.
2022
Central Eurasia Studies (20080867)15(1)pp. 361-386
Introduction: Energy security is a high priority for Germany as an industrialized country and any disruption in this issue will severely damage the country's economic strength and security. Russia's conflicts with Eastern European states, the European Union and NATO since the collapse of the Soviet Union have made it clear to Germany that energy security is fragile given the high potential for conflict between the two sides. Therefore, in response to the concern that in case of any disruption in the transmission of Russian natural gas by the countries of Ukraine, Belarus and Poland to the countries of the European Union, how to supply the energy needed by the members of this union caused the German government to sign the Nord Stream 2 project with Russia despite serious opposition of some members of the European Union and the United States. This project is supposed to transfer Russian gas through the Baltic Sea from the port city of Ust-Luga to the port city of Greifswald in Germany through two pipelines for a distance of more than 1200 km. The capacity of these pipelines is about 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year. This pipeline, along with the Nord Stream 1 pipeline alone, can supply 110 billion cubic meters of gas needed by Europe, which constitutes a large part of Europe's gas imports from Russia. The Nord Stream 2 project, which was halted and ultimately sanctioned due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, was supposed to transport Russian gas directly to Germany without any intermediaries but due to the impact it could have on the security and interests of some members of the European Union and the United States, it caused us to see conflicts of interest between some European Union countries with Germany and Russia, Germany and the United States, and between Russia and the United States. Research Question: What is the reason for the support of Germany and Russia, as well as the opposition of some members of the European Union and the United States to the Nord Stream 2 project? Research Hypothesis: The research hypothesis is based on the different effects that the Nord Stream 2 project can have on the interests and security of Germany, Russia, some members of the European Union and the United States which has caused the support of Germany, Russia and also the opposition of some members of the European Union and the United States to the Nord Stream 2 project. Theoretical Framework and Research Method: To answer the research question and test the hypothesis, the authors have used the qualitative method of multiple case studies to analyze the impact of the Nord Stream 2 project on the national security and interests of Germany, Russia, the United States and some members of the European Union. The data collection was also done in a library method and documents were collected as one of the methods of information collection and they were monitored using multiple case studies. In this way, at first the data was collected by referring to the sources related to the topic using note-taking tools and then the collected data was analyzed with a descriptive-analytical approach in the conceptual framework of Neo-realism theory and in this way, it has been tried to test the research hypothesis and answer the research question. Results and Discussion: The results obtained from this article indicate that ensuring Germany's energy security in light of Russia's conflicts with the countries of the Eastern European region, the European Union and NATO, promoting Germany's centrality in the field of energy and converting it into a political and economic center of energy in the European Union, Stabilizing Germany's position and political and economic influence in Russia and eliminating fluctuations in the final gas transit price is one of the main reasons for Germany's support for this project. Diversification of energy transfer policy from Russia to Europe due to the high capacity of non-transit energy transfer from third countries to Germany, gain enormous revenues from gas exports in light of Russia's dependence on oil and gas revenues and the Provide Russia with a powerful tool to counter the anti-Russian policies of Eastern European countries, as well as the United States and Western institutions are the main reasons of Russian’s support for the Nord Stream 2project.On the other hand, the European Union's greater dependence on Russian energy, concern about Russia's instrumental use of this project, deprivation of income from gas transit, ignoring the essential role of Poland and Ukraine in transferring Russian gas to Europe and removing their leverage over Russia, the impact of this project on the US sanctions and goals against Russia and the economic interests of this country in the European energy market is the main reason why some members of the European Union, especially Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the United States, oppose the Nord Stream 2 project. Conclusion: In this article, using the propositions of the neorealist approach, we examined the interests of Germany, Russia, the European Union, and the United States in relation to the Nord Stream 2 project and the reasons for their support and opposition to this project. According to Neo-realist statements, due to the anarchic structure of the international system, governments seek to increase their power in various ways to achieve their national interests. At the top of national interests is survival and security and any strategy that can achieve this in the best way will be the priority of countries' foreign policy. Therefore, according to the results of this article, countries such as Germany, Russia, some members of the European Union and the United States have a realistic view of the Nord Stream 2 project and considering the effects that this project can have on the security and national interests of these countries, Germany and Russia have supported this project and some members of the European Union and the United States have opposed it. © 2022,Central Eurasia Studies. All Rights Reserved.
2020
Central Eurasia Studies (20080867)13(2)pp. 569-593
About 80 countries with over 1.1 billion populations don’t have regular access to healthy freshwater resources. According to Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development findings (OECD), due to the excessive usage and climate changes, lots of freshwater resources will be disappeared by 2030; therefore over 3.9 billion people all over the world will face a fresh water shortage. Lack of water resources will cause political, social and economic crisis and will also result in extensive migrations and finally triggers regional conflicts. One outcome of the colonization of tsarism and then the Soviet era was destroying natural infrastructures including water resources (e.g. drying the Aral Sea), creating marginal areas, and making Central Asian countries a single product economy. The single product agricultural industry in the Central Asian socialist economy completely depends on the irrigation system. To irrigate cotton planting farms in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, more than 90 percent of existing water supplies being used. This amount becomes more catastrophic where in some areas, about 10.000 cubic meters of water were used for every hectare of the cotton farm. After the independence, this competition continued between 5 Central Asian countries. Increasing cotton production in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan made these two countries pioneers in the world. Between 2004-2005, these two countries accounted for 65 percent of the world’s cotton production. This policy in the agriculture industry results in severe depletion of farms, excessive use of chemical fertilizer as well as a reduction in cotton production in the last ten years, so this reduction in addition to population growth, makes these 5 Central Asian countries import food products. Decreasing freshwater quality, increasing the amount of salt in the soil, and farms salinity along with fast population growth were some causes of appearing marginal areas in Central Asian countries. Marginal areas because of the lack of social, educational, healthy, and cultural services and facilities are a place for future crises. Based on the World Council’s estimates about International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) studies, Central Asia is among areas that are severely affected by water shortages; the drying of the Aral Sea was a disaster and some parts of Central Asia were depopulated. Based on World Bank predictions, water shortages in this area will reach 25 to 30 percent by 2050 and it is also predicted that the population of Central Asia will increase to 90 million. It shows that we should expect a different crisis in Central Asia in which the results will be expanded all over the area including the Middle East, Europe and Central Asia. On the other hand, the area is located at the crossroads of international interests in the new geopolitical and geo-economic conditions which were created in the last decade of the twentieth century. From then on, it has highlighted the importance of this region in political stability and global security. In new conditions, Germany was always trying to find a suitable place to increase its economic and political presence in the region. At the beginning of 1990’s, political leaders of Germany showed some signs of independence of action in foreign policy by adopting a multilateral policy in the international system and gradually approaching other centers of powers; to this end, areas such as Central Asia became a place to show the power and the economic, commercial and almost political presence of Germany. On the other hand, political and security conditions in Afghanistan and their effect on multiple crises in Central Asia as well as conflicts among Ukraine and Russia and its effect on the gas transmission to Europe increased the importance of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Germany as the biggest industrial unit in the European Union is the most important exporter of technology and industrial goods. Because of the dilapidated economic and production structure left from the Soviet Union, Central Asian countries have the potential needs to accept technology and Germany’s investment in different sectors. Therefore, during years after independence, Germany tried to take advantage of these needs and increase its share. But Central Asian countries tend to face the crisis due to different factors including extremism, terrorism, drug trafficking, poverty, unemployment, extensive addiction, tribalism, the unfinished process of state-nation building in these countries, fragile security and educational structures (intelligence Police), low legitimate governments based in Central Asia, the intervention of regional and trans-regional countries including Russia, China and United States and the most important factor water storages. A crisis that if remains pervasive, will not only have social, political, economic and environmental consequences in Central Asia but also leads to the growth of extremism, terrorism, increased drug trafficking, disruption in energy flow and migration to Europe. Also, it poses a serious threat to Germany’s interests, especially its economic interests in the region. Therefore, Central Asia and countries within its sphere became of strategic importance to Germany in various ways, including in diversifying energy demands, economic, trade, security and cultural resources after the end of the cold war. So, all these factors have caused concern in German Foreign policy and this country has tried different measures to manage water resources. According to the aforementioned items, by using a descriptive-analytical method based on the theoretical framework of neoliberalism institutionalism, this paper seeks to investigate German measures to manage water resources in Central Asia and prevent political and social crisis caused by lack of sustainable management in the field of vital water resources in Central Asia. The results of this paper show that despite obstacles such as lack of mutual trust between the governments, the dominance of some Central Asian countries, low level of cooperation between 5 countries of the region concerning water resources management, and a series of structural problems, Germany has been able to work through multilateral cooperation between institutions and scientific centers and carry out important and significant measures, both technical and academic. Data collection in this article is based on library methods. © 2020, Central Eurasia Studies. All Rights Reserved.